Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting
Addressing Hydrometeorological Needs for Building and Enhancing Resilience Against Floods and Drought in the 21st Century Climate
It is well understood that water resources in most watersheds in Canada are heavily dependent on natural water storage provided by snowpacks and glaciers. Ongoing science hints at the intensification of the hydrologic cycle given the past warming trends which have resulted in significant changes in the hydrological regimes of many Canadian river basins. Accommodating the shifts in precipitation and runoff associated with climate change represents a significant challenge for the owners and operators of dams in cold regions. Most dams are designed to operate for many decades. Thus, understanding how climate change may impact extreme-rainfall, rain-on-snow dynamics and flood events is essential to ensuring that current and future dams can operate safely and efficiently well into the future.
In Canada, there are over 15,000 dams owned by federal and provincial governments, hydropower utilities, industrial companies (including mining), municipalities and private. Some of the larger dams are used for hydropower with many of the medium to small sized ones used for irrigation, flood control, and water supply. Regardless of the size, all dams must be designed, operated, and maintained to avoid unacceptable risk to inhabitants downstream. Federal and provincial Meteorological and Hydrological Services (MHSs) are tasked to protect human life by issuing timely and accurate flood forecasts. A forecast can be used by civil authorities to evacuate regions at risk from flooding and to take other precautions to protect life. Additionally, a forecast can provide the basis for preparing critical infrastructure for floods to minimize damage. Forecasts may also be used to inform operators of reservoirs in an effort to mitigate effects of floods downstream of reservoirs. Likewise, critical infrastructure and physical assets, especially along coastal areas, are vulnerable to sea level rise caused by climate change, and perhaps more importantly, to extremes of precipitation, wind, and storm surges, which in turn are likely to be exacerbated by climate change and consequent rise in sea levels. Floods and drought forecasting is therefore an important service of MHSs.
For most provinces, dam safety is legislated at the provincial level with regulations often inspired by the Canadian Dam Association’s Safety Guidelines. Dams classified in the “extreme hazard” category are those that, in case of failure, have the potential to cause human loss of life and severe environmental and financial losses. Consequently, they must meet strict design requirements regarding the maximum flow the dam must be able to pass based on the concept of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). One of the major drivers of the PMF is the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), which is the largest amount of precipitation that could accumulate in a given watershed, for a specific duration and for a particular time of year. Existing and new dams must be designed to withstand the impacts of climate change on the PMP and PMF. Our work focuses on developing robust methodologies to estimate watershed-specific historical and future PMP and PMF values.
Our areas of expertise include:
- Data Assimilation and Improved Climatological Products
- Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation
- Hydrological and Water Quality Forecasting
- Floods Forecasting
- Drought Forecasting
- River Ice Forecasting
- Computation of Probable Maximum Flood
- Development and Evaluation of Flood/Drought Forecasting Models
- Coastal Storm Surge Forecasting
- Cloud and High Performance Computing